The first two papers below were authored by my two friends, Joachim Samuelsson and Ulrich Bindseil, who will also be speaking at this Thursday’s Digital Euro Conference (see below) in Frankfurt. Also, Joachim very kindly helped me to summarize both articles, which I greatly appreciated as I’ve been very tied up in other matters these past few weeks.
Offline Payments at Scale as Digital Money (Crunchfish)
Crunchfish published an executive white paper that reframes offline payments from a resilience add-on to ledger-based payments platforms to core payments infrastructure. In a fully digital economy, the absence of offline capability becomes a systemic vulnerability, but the architecture matters. The paper provides an analytical framework for evaluating offline models as a lens for institutional alignment. It distinguishes between immediate offline (which shifts value and risk to devices), deferred offline (preserves ledger money but introduces credit and reconciliation risk) and governed offline (reservation-based in which funds remain reserved at source, enabling offline execution with deterministic settlement). The governed offline model aligns with card pre-authorization and smart contract settlement. In the case of central bank digital currency (CBDC) it maintains central bank control offline, preserves singleness of digital money and avoids fragmentation. [Crunchfish]
Public Discourse on Retail Payments and the Case of CBDC (Ulrich Bindseil)
Ulrich Bindseil posted a white paper that analyzes retail payments as a network industry shaped by strong incentives to influence public opinion and regulation. Due to network effects, high fixed costs, and path dependence, multiple architectures can deliver similar outcomes while redistributing value across stakeholders. The paper maps how banks, card schemes, Bigtechs, merchants, consumers, crypto actors, and public authorities promote strategic narratives, creating a noisy and biased policy debate. It evaluates central bank digital currency (CBDC) as a central policy choice, alongside alternatives such as regulation or public instant-payment systems. One of the paper’s key insights is that retail payment outcomes are not determined purely by efficiency, but by strategic communication, political economy, and institutional design under uncertainty. In addition, effective policy requires independent analysis, transparency, and preserving a balance between public and private money. [SSRN]
Stablecoins and the Future of Payments: Evidence from Financial Markets (IMF)
The IMF published a working paper that argues that recent U.S. stablecoin legislation is interpreted by markets as a major pro‑competitive shock to the payments industry. Using high‑frequency stock‑price data around key votes on the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins (GENIUS) Act, they estimate that passage reduced incumbent U.S. payment firms’ aggregate market capitalization by about 18% (roughly $300 billion) once anticipation is accounted for, with larger losses for cross‑border specialists and smaller or no losses for firms protected by strong network effects or already offering crypto services. The authors infer that investors expect regulated, fully backed “payment stablecoins” to materially intensify competition—especially in cross‑border payments—while leaving open how far network incumbency and early crypto engagement will mitigate disruption over time. [IMF]
Upcoming Speaking Engagements:
The Crypto Assets Conference (Frankfurt, March 25) will focus on the growing importance of digital assets for capital markets and the competitiveness of the European economy. I will be speaking on the uncertain future of CBDC projects. [Register here and get 15% off the regular ticket price.]
The Digital Euro Conference 2026 (Frankfurt, March 26) will explore the future of money with a focus on CBDCs, stablecoins, and commercial bank tokens. This hybrid event offers the perfect platform to understand the future of digital money! [Register here and get 20% off the regular ticket price by using the Kiffmeister20 code!]


I produce a monthly digest of digital fiat currency (DFC) developments exclusively for the official sector (e.g., central banks, ministries of finance and international financial institution (e.g., the BIS, IMF, OECD, World Bank)) plus academics and firms that are active in the DFC space (commercial banks, technology providers, consultants, etc.). (DFCs include central bank digital currency (CBDC), stablecoins and tokenized deposits.) It goes out via email on the first business day of every month, and if you’re interested in being on the mailing list, please email me at john@kiffmeister.com.










