A Bright Future for Retail Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC)? (Part 2)

April 6, 2026April 6, 2026 ~ kiffmeister ~ Leave a comment

In Part 1 of this series I used the CBDCTracker.org database to show that retail central bank digital currency (CBDC) projects seem to be fizzling out. Many central banks are putting their projects on the backburner or outright canceling them, some have been pivoting out of retail CBDC into wholesale CBDC-backed tokenized deposits, and some have just quietly quiet, never getting out of the research or proof-of-concept phases. Now I’ll review some of reasons why retail CBDC launches and pilots have been so underwhelming and suggest ways to achieve viability.

In many cases retail CBDCs are made redundant by payment ecosystems that are already well served by digital payment instruments, such as fast payment systems (FPSs). And as central banks navigate “knife edge” design challenges, they create retail CBDCs that offer nothing new and compelling to end users. Interest-bearing CBDCs are rejected on bank disintermediation concerns, and cash-like privacy is rejected in deference to financial integrity considerations.

In some cases of underwhelming pilots or launches, central banks skip too quickly through the development process and/or don’t involve all stakeholders. IMF (2023) recommends a five phase (“5P”) CBDC project management approach that starts with (1) preparation before moving on to (2) proof-of-concept work and (3) prototyping, followed by (4) piloting and (5) production (launch). In other cases, the infrastructure is incomplete and key partners (e.g., banks and merchants) lack incentives to support the retail CBDC.

Countries	Launch	Adoption so far	Adoption challenges/ lessons learned/
Bahamas Sand Dollar	Oct 2020	120,000 wallets (vs. population of 400,000) at end-March 2024. End-2025 Sand Dollars in circulation less than 1% of banknotes and coins in circulation.	Banks, credit unions, and merchants are slow to participate in the Sand Dollar network. The Sand Dollar was not integrated with the traditional banking system regarding merchant accounts. Customer education was inadequate, failing to show users how and why to use Sand Dollars.
Nigeria eNaira	Oct 2021	eNaira wallets had grown to 13 million in 2023, representing 9% of active bank accounts, but few are actually being used. End-October 2024 e-Naira in circulation was less than 0.5% of banknotes and coins in circulation. It seems that it now has been quietly put out of its misery.	The central bank was able to see all eNaira transactions, making potential users concerned. Nigeria has a large informal economy that thrives on cash. There were too few merchants and too little infrastructure. A change of the technology provider after the launch suggested that robust tech infrastructure was not in place.
Jamaica Jam-Dex	Jul 2022	305,000 wallets (vs. population of 2.8 million at end-2025). End-2025 JAM-DEX in circulation was less than 0.1% of banknotes and coins in circulation.	Slow merchant onboarding has been a big issue as retailers are required to upgrade their POS equipment to use Jam-Dex. The central bank did not incentivize or mandate banks to modify their ATMs to accept and convert Jam-Dex.
Source: IMF (2024) “Central Bank Digital Currency Adoption: Inclusive Strategies for Intermediaries and Users”.

Many central banks have prioritized building out fast payment systems, which are up and running in over 120 jurisdictions, versus just four launched retail CBDCs and five being piloted (Figures 1 and 2).[1] Although (IMF, 2025) makes a case for retail CBDC and FPS co-existence, one must wonder what incremental value retail CBDC offers users? Both provide instantaneous, efficient and potentially lower cost payments, and although FPSs transfer private liabilities that carry credit risk, deposit insurance eliminates that for most users.

Bindseil (2026) identifies several other reasons why retail CBDCs might trump FPSs, but while many of them resonate with central bankers and policymakers, I wonder how many of them do with potential users. I’ll discuss this more fully in the next post in this series.

[1] Figure 1 is based on the World Bank’s Project FASTT database that I updated with some AI assistance. Figure 2 is based on the CBDCTracker.org database.

FYI I produce a monthly digest of digital fiat currency (DFC) developments exclusively for the official sector (e.g., central banks, ministries of finance and international financial institution (e.g., the BIS, IMF, OECD, World Bank)) plus academics and firms that are active in the DFC space (commercial banks, technology providers, consultants, etc.). (DFCs include central bank digital currency (CBDC), stablecoins and tokenized deposits.) It goes out via email on the first business day of every month, and if you’re interested in being on the mailing list, please email me at john@kiffmeister.com.

Kiffmeister’s #Fintech Daily Digest (20260405)

April 5, 2026April 5, 2026 ~ kiffmeister ~ Leave a comment

Is Nigeria’s eNaira Dead? (Cryptonews)

[October 22, 2025] Nigeria’s eNaira has effectively slipped into a quiet death, with official channels and infrastructure fading away even as authorities stop short of formally killing the project. The mobile apps have disappeared from major app stores, the USSD access channel no longer works, leaving users locked out or unable to complete basic actions. And the eNaira’s official website returns a “404 Web Site not found” message and the official social media presence has been silent since 2023. [Cryptonews]

Question to readers: Should the eNaira be classified as “canceled” in the CBDCTracker.org database? The story above is old, but everything it says is now current.

Innovations and the Layering of Money and Payments (SAFE)

In a Sustainable Architecture for Finance in Europe (SAFE) working paper, Ulrich Bindseil argues that technological innovation is reshaping but not abolishing the hierarchical “layering” of money and payment ledgers, with central bank money remaining the ultimate anchor. He develops a typology of ledger layers and balance‑sheet structures, then applies it to central bank digital currency (CBDC), instant payment systems, public blockchains, tokenized multi‑asset platforms, expanded non‑bank access to central bank accounts, and stablecoins, finding that most proposals reorganize tiers rather than create a genuinely flat architecture. This matters because optimal layering balances efficiency, risk allocation, and governance: central banks should preserve singleness of money via a senior public ledger while selectively widening access and modernizing regulation to manage new operational and financial risks. The key unresolved question is how far to extend base‑layer access and programmability without undermining the advantages of a two‑tier banking system or overburdening central banks’ risk‑management role. [SAFE vis SSRN]

Kiffmeister’s #Fintech Daily Digest (20260404)

April 4, 2026April 4, 2026 ~ kiffmeister ~ Leave a comment

Worldpay 2026 Global Payments Report (Worldpay)

Worldpay published the 2026 edition of its Global Payments Report in which it argues that global consumer payments are rapidly shifting toward digital wallets and app‑based rails, with cards adapting and crypto evolving rather than disrupting. The report documents rising wallet dominance in e‑commerce and at point of sale, regional variation in account‑to‑account systems, and the continued but declining direct share of cards as usage migrates into wallets. These developments sharpen questions about governance of national fast‑payment infrastructures, merchant routing and fee regulation, cross‑border interoperability, and the competitive position of bank‑issued cards versus platform wallets and “superapps.” They also highlight how buy-now-pay-later and card‑backed installments blur prudential and consumer‑protection boundaries, and how stablecoin‑based payment rails may need bespoke oversight alongside traditional systems. [Worldpay]

An Efficient Frontier Analysis of Stablecoin Reserve Management (VISA)

VISA published an article in which Ezechiel Copic uses an efficient frontier framework to show how new U.S. and EU stablecoin rules compress reserve returns and reorient issuer economics toward liquidity and resilience. The article models pre‑regulation reserve strategies using Tether’s historical mix to illustrate a wide opportunity set, then re‑estimates frontiers under the U.S. GENIUS Act and the EU’s Markets in Crypto‑Assets Regulation. Under GENIUS, a narrow set of high‑quality liquid assets leaves only a thin band of feasible risk‑return combinations, making reserve management resemble liquidity engineering rather than portfolio optimization. Under MiCA, lower euro‑area rates and binding bank‑deposit floors further depress and compress the frontier, especially for “significant” issuers. The analysis implies competition will shift from balance‑sheet yield to technology, distribution, and compliance, while leaving open how far reduced issuer economics may constrain market entry and long‑run innovation. [VISA]

Tokenized Finance (IMF)

The IMF’s Tobias Adrian argues that tokenization is a structural reconfiguration of financial architecture that shifts trust and risk management from institutions to programmable infrastructures. Tokenization enables atomic, real-time settlement and embedded compliance across money, banking, capital markets, and financial market infrastructures, compressing value chains but also accelerating liquidity dynamics and potential stress transmission. For emerging and developing economies, although tokenization may lower payment and market-access frictions, it heightens risks of volatile capital flows, currency substitution, and fragmented liquidity. The note emphasizes that the long-term success of tokenization depends on anchoring digital finance in public trust through clear policy frameworks and safe settlement assets, robust governance of code, legal certainty, and international coordination. Absent such anchors, tokenization risks amplifying financial instability through speed, concentration, and fragmentation, as contract-based risk management alter the nature of settlement, liquidity, and systemic risk. [IMF]

Results of the SNB 2025 Payment Methods Survey of Private Individuals (SNB)

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) reported its 2025 survey results on payment behavior among private individuals in Switzerland. The SNB finds that use of payment methods at physical points of sale is largely unchanged from 2024, with debit cards leading, followed by cash and mobile payment apps, based on diary and questionnaire responses from roughly 2,000 residents. For policy and cash-infrastructure design, satisfaction with cash access has dropped from 88% to 81%, likely reflecting the continued reduction of automated teller machines and similar access points, which may pressure authorities to reconsider minimum cash-access standards or incentives for basic cash services. At the same time, only 2% of respondents support abolishing cash, underscoring that cash still fulfills a demanded role in retail payments and resilience planning. [SNB]

And now for more backfilling, more of which is to come…

Do We Really Need the Digital Euro: A Solution to What Problem Exactly? (IEA)

[April 30, 2025] The Instituto Espanol de Analysts (IEA) published a book that included a chapter by European Parliament rapporteur Fernando Navarette, that argues that a digital euro is a mis-specified response to Europe’s payments challenges and should be downgraded to a contingency “Plan B.” He contends that the core problems—trust in money post‑crisis, overreliance on non‑EU payment schemes, and stablecoin‑driven currency substitution—are better addressed through institutional and regulatory reforms, wholesale central bank digital currency (CBDC), and pan‑European instant‑payment solutions based on commercial bank money. Navarrete stresses that retail CBDC is inherently destabilizing for bank funding, raises unresolved privacy and governance risks, and risks crowding out private innovation, especially if coupled with legal tender and complex “waterfall” mechanics. He instead proposes a three‑pillar architecture: private‑led interoperable instant payments, a narrowly scoped offline digital euro, and wholesale CBDC—leaving a full retail CBDC only as a last‑resort backup if private efforts fail. [IEA]

The eNaira Journey So Far (in 2023) (CBN)

[In 2023] the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) published a book on the economics of digital currencies in which there was a review of how the eNaira central bank digital currency (CBDC) was designed, launched, and managed. It argues that weak demand reflects structural and institutional frictions rather than purely technological failure. The review documents a phased rollout focused on financial inclusion, payment efficiency, and monetary control, but shows that limited interoperability, burdensome onboarding, and unclear value propositions constrained uptake. It emphasizes how institutional choices around wallet tiers, distribution architecture, and bank–fintech roles reshaped market incentives, often reinforcing banks’ dominance rather than fostering broader innovation. It highlights the need to recalibrate design toward open interfaces, clearer legal and regulatory frameworks, and better alignment between central bank objectives and private‑sector business models. [CBN]

A Bright Future for Retail Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC)? (Part 1)

April 3, 2026April 6, 2026 ~ kiffmeister ~ Leave a comment

There are a number of central bank digital currency (CBDC) trackers that provide accurate snapshots of the CBDC state of play at any point in time, like those of the Atlantic Council and Human Rights Foundation (HRF). However, as far as I know, only CBDCTracker.org also maintains a historical database of CBDC developments that it makes available to researchers. Although I’m part of the CBDCTracker.org team, I haven’t actually done anything interesting with the database until now. So here it goes.

I have long been using Figure 1 to illustrate the growth in central banks starting to explore retail CBDC.[1] The number has grown from five in 2015 to the current 117. The other trackers publish higher counts (over 130) but that’s because they count the individual countries in currency unions separately. So, for example, I count the Euro Area as one, but the Atlantic Council counts nine of the Euro Area countries separately, and the HRF counts all of them (actually 20 because they’re not yet tracking Bulgaria). My rationale for not counting the individual countries is that only the currency union’s central bank (e.g., the ECB in the case of the Euro Area) can issue the CBDC (e.g., digital euro).[2]

However, Figure 1 is based on a cumulative count that doesn’t account for central banks canceling or fizzling out their CBDC projects. In many cases the central bank makes a public announcement that it is ceasing or putting on hold its retail CBDC project (e.g., Australia, Brazil, Canada, Norway, Sweden and United States). More recently, some central banks have been pivoting out of retail CBDC into wholesale CBDC-backed tokenized deposits (e.g., China and South Korea). And then there are the quiet quitters, many of whom never got out of the research or proof-of-concept phases.

Anyways, the CBDCTracker.org database provides all of the information required to identify the central banks that have publicly shut down their retail CBDC projects, and those who have let their projects fizzle out quietly. The result of that is Figure 2, which classifies projects that are “live” as the ones that are currently launched or being actively piloted, plus, of the rest, the ones who have provided public evidence that their projects are still live within the last 12 months of the period in question. At March-end 2026, there were 34 live efforts – four that have launched, four active pilots, nine in active proof-of-concept phases, and 17 research projects for which public updates had been made since March 2025.

This seems to fly in the face of headlines, like those claiming that a clear majority of central banks see CBDC adoption in 5-10 years (Central Banking, 2026). I have a suspicion that such headline claims include the currency union double counting I mentioned above, plus wholesale CBDC (or “tokenized central bank money”) projects, which do seem to have a promising future. I suspect that if I were to recreate Figure 2 for wholesale CBDC, the numbers wouldn’t be as high, but the “live” numbers wouldn’t be far below the totals.

Meanwhile, in follow-up posts I’ll go through the reasons I think that retail CBDC projects seem to be fizzling out and give my suggestions for a possibly brighter future.

[1] Retail CBDC is a broadly available general purpose digital payment instrument, denominated in the jurisdiction’s unit of account, that’s a direct liability of the monetary authority. Wholesale CBDC is limited to a set of predefined user groups, like financial institutions, based on distributed ledger technology.

[2] I’m not saying that the Atlantic Council or HRF are necessarily wrong, because they may have their reasons for focusing on individual countries, like geopolitical and human rights angles, which may be country specific.

Kiffmeister’s #Fintech Daily Digest (20260401)

April 1, 2026April 1, 2026 ~ kiffmeister ~ Leave a comment

The Eurosystem’s Comprehensive Payments Strategy (ECB)

The European Central Bank (ECB) set out the Eurosystem’s comprehensive two pronged payments strategy, defining its vision for the evolution of European payments under rapid technological change. The first prong is upgrading core infrastructures such as T2, the real time gross settlement backbone for high value and time critical payments during business days, and TIPS, the 24/7 Single Euro Payments Area (SEPA) instant retail settlement layer, while developing distributed ledger technology based wholesale settlement via Pontes and Appia. The second prong is a retail digital euro, with tokenized deposits and regulated, EU governed stablecoins in a complementary role. The strategy links tokenization choices to preserving the singleness of money, monetary sovereignty, and financial stability, reduces dependence on non European schemes, and embeds strategic autonomy and cyber resilience into core infrastructures and retail acceptance layers. It also promotes deeper integration of cross border and corporate payments through instant payments, standardization, and interlinking fast payment systems. [ECB]

Protected: Kiffmeister’s Digital Currency Monitor, March 2026

March 31, 2026March 31, 2026 ~ kiffmeister

Kiffmeister’s #Fintech Daily Digest (20260330)

March 30, 2026March 31, 2026 ~ kiffmeister ~ Leave a comment

Tokenised Deposits, WCBDC and the Central Bank’s Liquidity Management (Norges Bank)

Norges Bank published a paper that analyzes how tokenized bank deposits and wholesale central bank digital currency (WCBDC) interact with central bank liquidity management under different reserve regimes and settlement designs. They model four configurations combining scarce versus ample reserves with settlement either in traditional reserves via the real-time gross settlement (RTGS) system or in WCBDC on a ledger, showing that liquidity frictions arise mainly when reserves are scarce and tokenized payments can alter banks’ reserve or WCBDC positions close to RTGS cut-off (see table below). This matters because late-in-the-day tokenized flows can force abrupt recourse to standing facilities, complicate overnight redistribution, and impair short-term rate control and monetary policy implementation, particularly in corridor or quota systems. Policy responses include deferred settlement for tokenized deposits settled in reserves and time windows or design tweaks for WCBDC activity. [Norges Bank]

Are Stablecoins and Bank Deposits Substitutes? (SSRN)

Rashad Ahmed (Anderson Institute for Finance and Economics) and Iñaki Aldasoro (BIS) posted a paper that analyzes U.S. weekly data from 2019–2025 to test whether deposit rates and reserve‑backed stablecoin holdings are substitutes. They find that higher demand deposit rates significantly slow stablecoin market capitalization growth, exploiting a nonlinear deposit‑rate pass‑through “kink” above a 3% federal funds rate, yielding effects about three times larger. This suggests bank funding conditions and monetary policy transmission now extend into stablecoin markets, with stronger substitution for USDC than USDT, aligning with USDC’s tighter links to U.S. users, and no comparable effect for bitcoin. The findings suggest that deposit‑rate regulation, the design of stablecoin regimes, and the stance of monetary policy can reallocate liquidity between banks and USD stablecoins, although identification relies on a single high‑rate episode and aggregate data that leave user‑level motives and heterogeneity across institutions unresolved. [SSRN]

Kiffmeister’s #Fintech Daily Digest (20260328)

March 28, 2026March 28, 2026 ~ kiffmeister ~ Leave a comment

Sorry for the long radio silence, but I was traveling this week (Switzerland for private meetings and Frankfurt to speak at Frankfurt School’s Crypto Assets Conference and the Digital Euro Association’s Annual Conference (both excellent annual conferences that you should mark your next year’s calendar for). On top of that I picked up a stomach bug (probably food poisoning along the way). Anyways I’m back in the saddle now and trying to catch up and make sure I get the monthly out on time (see below).

Bank of Uganda Looking for Consultants for CBDC Feasibility Study (BOU)

The Bank of Uganda (BOU) is inviting qualified consultants or consulting firms to submit expressions of interest to conduct a comprehensive feasibility study on issuing a central bank digital currency (CBDC) in Uganda, covering technical infrastructure, legal and regulatory aspects, economic and social impacts, operational viability, and a detailed cost-benefit analysis using both quantitative and qualitative methods. The selected firm will assess national digital and payments infrastructure, propose and apply a robust methodology, and deliver specified reports demonstrating understanding, relevant experience, and a workplan. Participation is open under Bank of Uganda procurement rules, with detailed eligibility, experience, and team composition criteria (multi-disciplinary CBDC, payments, economic, legal, cybersecurity, and change-management experts) and a minimum technical score of 70 points for shortlisting. The deadline for submissions is on April 16, 2026. [BOU]

Norges Bank’s Exploration of Central Bank Digital Currency (Norges Bank)

Norges Bank published four reports from its CBDC exploratory work, which last year concluded that introducing a CBDC is currently not warranted. The need for such a currency may, however, change in the future. The four reports published today describe the exploration work and the assessments underpinning the conclusion. Norges Bank will continue to explore tokenization and different forms of CBDC in order to introduce a CBDC should it be necessary The Bank will explore the possibilities and consequences of tokenization through activities such as experimental technology testing, also in collaboration with other payment system participants. One of the papers documents sandbox tests of a two-tier, blockchain-based retail CBDC that central bank exclusively mints and redeems, while banks and other payment service providers manage all customer relationships and data. Tests show that role-based smart contracts can technically enforce this division of responsibilities and give the central bank only aggregate, real-time circulation data, but they also highlight structural privacy risks from linkable pseudonymous addresses and operational rigidity from immutable smart contracts. [Norges Bank]

Tether Appoints KPMG to Complete First Full Audit (Tether)

Tether has appointed KPMG, one of the Big Four accounting firms, to perform a proper audit of its USDT stablecoin. Additionally, according to the Financial Times, Tether has also enlisted PwC, another of the Big four, to help prepare its internal systems for this auditing process. This initiative coincides with Tether’s plans to register USDT under the U.S. GENIUS Act, signaling a significant step in its expansion efforts within the U.S. market. [Tether]

Western Union has Big Plans for Stablecoins (American Banker)

Western Union is making a strategic pivot toward stablecoins as part of the 175-year-old company’s efforts to transform into a digital-first organization. The company’s own stablecoin — the U.S. Dollar Payment Token (USDPT), issued on the Solana blockchain and managed by U.S. Bank — will convert “negative float” (capital costs from pre-funding partners) into interest-bearing revenue. Beyond revenue generation, USDPT gives Western Union programmable compliance controls across its operations in 200 countries and territories, allowing transaction terms to be customized at the partner level. The stablecoin is also expected to help customers in inflation-prone economies hold dollar-denominated assets. [American Banker]

GSMA State of the Industry Report on Mobile Money 2026 (GSMA)

The GSMA published its annual mobile money report showing that mobile money has entered a new scale and maturity phase, processing over 2.1 trillion dollars annually through 2.3 billion registered accounts in 2025. The report documents rapid growth in active usage, merchant payments, interoperable bank–wallet transfers, and agent networks that digitize cash at volume. Mobile money now underpins basic account ownership in many low‑ and middle‑income countries, shifts payments from cash to digital channels, and increasingly delivers adjacent services such as nano‑credit, savings, and insurance, with most providers profitable. It also raises design questions around interoperability, cross‑border data rules, taxation of transactions, consumer protection, fraud controls, and persistent gender gaps in account use. [GSMA]

And some backfilling:

Final Report of the Consultation on CBDC for Uganda (BOU)

[June 2025] The Bank of Uganda (BOU) published the final report on its central bank digital currency (CBDC) consultation. It argues that a CBDC merits further, phased exploration as a tool for modernizing payments, inclusion, and regional integration. The survey of 151 largely domestic, policy‑adjacent stakeholders found high reported trust in a CBDC, strong expectations of reduced cash‑handling costs and improved payment efficiency, and majority support for a retail, potentially programmable instrument that coexists with current systems. For policy and institutional design, the report frames CBDC as building on Uganda’s extensive mobile money and real-time gross settlement (RTGS) infrastructure, potentially enhancing transparency, cross‑border trade in the East African Community, and monetary policy implementation, while emphasizing preconditions around legal frameworks, cybersecurity, and stakeholder engagement. [BOU]

Kiffmeister’s #Fintech Daily Digest (20260324)

March 24, 2026 ~ kiffmeister ~ Leave a comment

European Council Presses Co-Legislators on Digital Euro Legislation (European Council)

At its meeting on March 19, 2026, the European Council, the body comprising the heads of state or government of all European Union (EU) Member States, called on the EU’s two co-legislators, the European Parliament and the Council of the European Union (comprising Member State ministers), to conclude negotiations on the digital euro legislative proposal by end-2026. Although the European Council sets political direction and cannot itself pass legislation, its conclusions carry considerable authority. The deadline is consequential: the ECB has indicated that, assuming the regulation is adopted in 2026, pilot transactions could commence by mid-2027 and a first issuance could occur by 2029, with estimated development costs of approximately €1.3 billion. The ECB’s final decision on whether to issue a digital euro remains contingent on adoption of the enabling legislation. [European Council]

Upcoming Speaking Engagements:

The Crypto Assets Conference (Frankfurt, March 25) will focus on the growing importance of digital assets for capital markets and the competitiveness of the European economy. I will be speaking on the uncertain future of CBDC projects. [Register here and get 15% off the regular ticket price.]

The Digital Euro Conference 2026 (Frankfurt, March 26) will explore the future of money with a focus on CBDCs, stablecoins, and commercial bank tokens. This hybrid event offers the perfect platform to understand the future of digital money! [Register here and get 20% off the regular ticket price by using the Kiffmeister20 code!]

I produce a monthly digest of digital fiat currency (DFC) developments exclusively for the official sector (e.g., central banks, ministries of finance and international financial institution (e.g., the BIS, IMF, OECD, World Bank)) plus academics and firms that are active in the DFC space (commercial banks, technology providers, consultants, etc.). (DFCs include central bank digital currency (CBDC), stablecoins and tokenized deposits.) It goes out via email on the first business day of every month, and if you’re interested in being on the mailing list, please email me at john@kiffmeister.com.

Kiffmeister’s #Fintech Daily Digest (20260321)

March 21, 2026March 21, 2026 ~ kiffmeister ~ Leave a comment

The first two papers below were authored by my two friends, Joachim Samuelsson and Ulrich Bindseil, who will also be speaking at this Thursday’s Digital Euro Conference (see below) in Frankfurt. Also, Joachim very kindly helped me to summarize both articles, which I greatly appreciated as I’ve been very tied up in other matters these past few weeks.

Offline Payments at Scale as Digital Money (Crunchfish)

Crunchfish published an executive white paper that reframes offline payments from a resilience add-on to ledger-based payments platforms to core payments infrastructure. In a fully digital economy, the absence of offline capability becomes a systemic vulnerability, but the architecture matters. The paper provides an analytical framework for evaluating offline models as a lens for institutional alignment. It distinguishes between immediate offline (which shifts value and risk to devices), deferred offline (preserves ledger money but introduces credit and reconciliation risk) and governed offline (reservation-based in which funds remain reserved at source, enabling offline execution with deterministic settlement). The governed offline model aligns with card pre-authorization and smart contract settlement. In the case of central bank digital currency (CBDC) it maintains central bank control offline, preserves singleness of digital money and avoids fragmentation. [Crunchfish]

Public Discourse on Retail Payments and the Case of CBDC (Ulrich Bindseil)

Ulrich Bindseil posted a white paper that analyzes retail payments as a network industry shaped by strong incentives to influence public opinion and regulation. Due to network effects, high fixed costs, and path dependence, multiple architectures can deliver similar outcomes while redistributing value across stakeholders. The paper maps how banks, card schemes, Bigtechs, merchants, consumers, crypto actors, and public authorities promote strategic narratives, creating a noisy and biased policy debate. It evaluates central bank digital currency (CBDC) as a central policy choice, alongside alternatives such as regulation or public instant-payment systems. One of the paper’s key insights is that retail payment outcomes are not determined purely by efficiency, but by strategic communication, political economy, and institutional design under uncertainty. In addition, effective policy requires independent analysis, transparency, and preserving a balance between public and private money. [SSRN]

Stablecoins and the Future of Payments: Evidence from Financial Markets (IMF)

The IMF published a working paper that argues that recent U.S. stablecoin legislation is interpreted by markets as a major pro‑competitive shock to the payments industry. Using high‑frequency stock‑price data around key votes on the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins (GENIUS) Act, they estimate that passage reduced incumbent U.S. payment firms’ aggregate market capitalization by about 18% (roughly $300 billion) once anticipation is accounted for, with larger losses for cross‑border specialists and smaller or no losses for firms protected by strong network effects or already offering crypto services. The authors infer that investors expect regulated, fully backed “payment stablecoins” to materially intensify competition—especially in cross‑border payments—while leaving open how far network incumbency and early crypto engagement will mitigate disruption over time. [IMF]

Upcoming Speaking Engagements: