The following is a corrected version of my December 29, 2025 post regarding “remunerated digital yuan”. Thanks to Amnon Samid for pointing out that I incorrectly said that the digital yuan itself was remunerated.
PBOC to Permit Banks to Pay Interest on Digital Yuan Deposits (Weixin)
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) has proposed allowing banks to pay interest on customer digital yuan (E-CNY) deposits starting January 1, 2026, as part of efforts to expand the circle of banks participating in the central bank digital currency (CBDC) project. However, the initiative faces challenges: interest rates on demand deposits at major Chinese banks are currently just 0.05%, and the digital yuan has struggled to compete with established payment platforms like WeChat Pay and Alipay despite being piloted in over half of mainland provinces. [Source: Weixin] Such deposits will presumably have the same legal status as traditional bank deposits. Also, the mechanics of the operation are still unknown, with some variations implying that the commercial banks will be effectively authorized to issue digital yuan on behalf of the PBOC in order to pay the interest. [Amnon Samid’s January 1, 2026 LinkedIn post]
Stablecoin Devaluation Risk (European Journal of Finance)
A paper co-authored by Barry Eichengreen published in the European Journal of Finance (EJF) contends that reliance of stablecoin issuers on centralized custodians introduces devaluation risk similar to that observed in traditional currencies under pegged exchange rate regimes. The authors construct market-based measures of stablecoin devaluation risk using spot and futures prices for Tether. Conditional on full default, their estimates suggest an average devaluation probability of 60 basis points annually, rising to over 200 basis points during the 2022 Terra-Luna crash. In contrast, the probability of a partial default, defined as a 5% devaluation (trading at 95 cents), is approximately 12 percentage points on an annualized basis. Key risk factors include market volatility and transaction velocity. While elevated interest rates suggest heightened devaluation risk, deviations from covered interest parity indicate segmentation between traditional and stablecoin markets, reflecting the effects of leverage trading and arbitrage costs. To mitigate these risks, their findings suggest the importance of greater transparency and regulatory oversight. For example, the authors suggest implementing proof-of-reserve systems powered by smart contracts which would allow new tokens to be minted only when verified reserve balances increase, providing real-time detection of custodial issues rather than relying on quarterly attestations. [Source: EJF]
Upcoming Speaking Engagements:
The Digital Euro Conference 2026 (Frankfurt, March 26) will explore the future of money with a focus on CBDCs, stablecoins, and commercial bank tokens. This hybrid event offers the perfect platform to understand the future of digital money! [Register here and get 20% off the regular ticket price by using the Kiffmeister20 code!]
I produce a monthly digest of digital fiat currency (DFC) developments exclusively for the official sector (e.g., central banks, ministries of finance and international financial institution (e.g., the BIS, IMF, OECD, World Bank)) plus academics and firms that are active in the DFC space (commercial banks, technology providers, consultants, etc.). (DFCs include central bank digital currency (CBDC), stablecoins and tokenized deposits.) It goes out via email on the first business day of every month, and if you’re interested in being on the mailing list, please email me at john@kiffmeister.com.
