National Bank of Kazakhstan Digital Tenge Annual Review (NBK)

The National Bank of Kazakhstan (NBK) published its annual review of the Digital Tenge project, which has shifted from research (2021) to limited production (2023) and scaled pilots in state-related payments (2025) within a broader National Digital Financial Infrastructure strategy. Programmable applications are focused on government spending, tax administration (“Digital VAT”), and targeted subsidies, rather than large-scale retail distribution. It operationalizes central bank digital currency (CBDC) as fiscal and public-finance infrastructure, tightening traceability, automating conditionality, and integrating with identification, anti-fraud, and open banking rails, rather than as a standalone payments product. The open question is how far Kazakhstan will extend CBDC use beyond state-linked flows and cross-border experiments once the 2026 roadmap and full-scale production decisions are implemented. [NBK]

Appia Roadmap for European Tokenized Finance (ECB)

The European Central Bank (ECB) published the Appia roadmap, a strategic workplan to design a tokenized wholesale financial ecosystem in Europe in which central bank money remains the settlement anchor. It will complement its Pontes distributed ledger technology (DLT) settlement solution due to launch in late 2026. Appia will, through structured engagement with market participants and public bodies, generate by 2028 a blueprint for tokenized market infrastructures, including choices between shared versus interconnected DLT networks and associated governance and standard-setting. It seeks to preserve effective monetary policy transmission, safeguard financial stability and payment system functioning, and reduce market fragmentation while enabling smart-contract based innovation in securities and payments. It also has a strategic autonomy dimension, aiming to keep euro-denominated financial market infrastructures competitive and interoperable in a tokenized world. The key open questions concern optimal network configuration, European governance arrangements and how far private infrastructures should rely on central bank money in tokenized form. [ECB]

Stablecoin Shocks (IMF)

The IMF published a paper that constructs narrative, high-frequency measures of “stablecoin shocks” based on USDT/USDC market-cap changes around stablecoin-specific news to identify their causal effects on U.S. financial markets. A 1 percent stablecoin demand shock persistently lowers short-term Treasury yields (about 1.9 bps at the 1‑month tenor), with limited effects on longer maturities. The broad dollar index modestly depreciates and crypto prices rise, with a small, economically minor increase in the S&P 500. Equity effects are heterogeneous: payment providers and crypto platforms benefiting from stablecoin infrastructure see gains, while large and community banks and major retailers show no significant response, implying markets do not yet price material disintermediation risk. Results are robust across identification strategies, event definitions, and econometric specifications. [IMF]

Tokenomics and Blockchain Fragmentation (BIS)

The BIS published a Hyun Song Shin paper that develops a global-games model of distributed technology technology (DLT) network validator coordination to show that higher decentralization requires disproportionately higher validator rents funded by user fees. This implies that capacity must be endogenously constrained and congestion is structurally necessary rather than incidental. This tokenomic structure induces entry of lower-security, lower-fee chains that attract users priced out of incumbent ledgers, generating persistent fragmentation across base layers and layer‑2s and eroding the network effects that normally drive convergence on a single medium of exchange. As a result, for example, nominally identical stablecoins on different chains are non‑fungible, bridged rather than natively interoperable, so liquidity and acceptance remain chain‑specific despite common issuers and regulatory regimes. The paper argues that a central‑bank‑anchored trust and settlement layer is required to deliver monetary integration, rather than relying on fully decentralized consensus. [BIS]

Stablecoins and the Missing Infrastructure Layer (LinkedIn)

Tord Coucheron posted a paper that argues that stablecoin growth reflects a structural response to cross‑border payment frictions in correspondent banking, not a fundamental demand for new private money. It shows that liquidity fragmentation, prefunding costs, and opaque, sequential settlement make traditional cross‑border transfers slow and capital‑intensive, making privately issued tokenized settlement claims economically attractive despite reserve and governance risks. It then introduces a real‑time multi‑currency financial market infrastructure (FMI) in central bank money, where banks hold multiple currencies and settle via payment‑versus‑payment (PvP), driving settlement costs toward zero and preserving the deposit‑funded banking model, monetary policy transmission, and monetary sovereignty. [LinkedIn]

Upcoming Speaking Engagements:

The Crypto Assets Conference (Frankfurt, March 25) I will be speaking on the uncertain future of CBDC projects. [Register here and get 15% off the regular ticket price.]

The Digital Euro Conference 2026 (Frankfurt, March 26) will explore the future of money with a focus on CBDCs, stablecoins, and commercial bank tokens. This hybrid event offers the perfect platform to understand the future of digital money! [Register here and get 20% off the regular ticket price by using the Kiffmeister20 code!]

I produce a monthly digest of digital fiat currency (DFC) developments exclusively for the official sector (e.g., central banks, ministries of finance and international financial institution (e.g., the BIS, IMF, OECD, World Bank)) plus academics and firms that are active in the DFC space (commercial banks, technology providers, consultants, etc.). (DFCs include central bank digital currency (CBDC), stablecoins and tokenized deposits.) It goes out via email on the first business day of every month, and if you’re interested in being on the mailing list, please email me at john@kiffmeister.com.