The Macroeconomics of Stablecoins (BIS)
The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) published a paper by Hofmann, Kaldorf and Rottner that argues widespread stablecoin adoption modestly reduces long‑run U.S. output by tightening bank funding and credit, with offsetting fiscal effects from cheaper government debt issuance. The authors embed stablecoins in a macro‑finance and banking model with distortionary fiscal policy, where issuers hold short‑term government bonds, wholesale bank deposits, or central bank reserves under varying regulatory regimes. Stablecoins operate through a bank lending channel that raises deposit rates and funding costs and a fiscal space channel that expands room for tax cuts or spending by lowering Treasury bill yields. In baseline calibration the lending channel slightly dominates, but short‑run transition effects are expansionary and design choices, public debt levels, and foreign demand materially alter the long‑run macro impact and monetary transmission. [BIS]
BTW if you want to see a complete database of my DFC-related posts going back years, including many that didn’t make the Daily Digest cut, click here.
FYI I produce a monthly digest of digital fiat currency (DFC) developments exclusively for the official sector (e.g., central banks, ministries of finance and international financial institution (e.g., the BIS, IMF, OECD, World Bank)) plus academics and firms that are active in the DFC space (commercial banks, technology providers, consultants, etc.). (DFCs include central bank digital currency (CBDC), stablecoins and tokenized deposits.) It goes out via email on the first business day of every month, and if you’re interested in being on the mailing list, please email me at john@kiffmeister.com.
