BIS research suggests optimal level of CBDC is 40% of GDP

The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) published a paper on the potential impact of introducing retail central bank digital currency (CBDC). It argues for a fairly aggressive issuance policy with an optimal outstanding level equal to about 40% of annual gross domestic product (GDP). In the paper’s theoretical model, GDP increases by more than 6%, with only a 6% drop in commercial bank deposits, albeit based on restrictive assumptions, like limited on-demand convertibility of bank deposits into CBDC, and issuance only permitted against government securities (and not reserves). Many of the macroeconomic benefits come from the fiscal budgetary space created by replacing higher-interest government debt by CBDC remunerated at an interest rate below that on central bank reserves. [Read more at the BIS]

FedNow is not a central bank digital currency

The U.S. Fed posted a Fed Now explainer on Twitter to counter misinformation spread by Presidential hopeful Robert F. Kennedy Jr. claiming that FedNow is a form of CBDC. In fact, FedNow is an instant payments service provided by the Fed that will launch in July 2023. It will be available to U.S. depository institutions, such as banks and credit unions, and will enable individuals and businesses to send payments through their depository institution accounts 24/7, so that the receiver of a can use the funds almost instantly.  FedNow is like other Fed payments services, such as Fedwire and FedACH, and comes with no additional “surveillance” features. FedNow is neither a form of currency nor a step toward eliminating any form of payment, including cash. [Read more at the Fed and on Twitter]

Bigtechs and the credit channel of monetary policy

The BIS published a paper that documents some stylized facts on Bigtech credit and rationalize them through the lens of a model where Bigtechs facilitate matching on the e-commerce platform and extend loans. Bigtech reinforces credit repayment with the threat of exclusion from the platform, while bank credit is secured against collateral. The model suggests that: (i) a rise in Bigtechs’ matching efficiency increases the value for firms of trading on the platform and the availability of Bigtech credit; (ii) Bigtech credit mitigates the initial response of output to a monetary shock, while increasing its persistence; (iii) the efficiency gains generated by big techs are limited by the distortionary fees collected from users. [Read more at the BIS]

Upcoming conferences, webinars and speaking engagements:

• I’ll be moderating a panel on “what happens when the lights go out…different schemes for offline functionality” at the in-person Digital Currency Conference (DCC) in Mexico City on May 18. [Register here]
• I’ll be participating in Currency Research’s in-person Central Bank Payments Conference and Global Payments Summit in Cape Town from June 26 to 30. [Register here and here respectively]

Kiffmeister’s global central bank digital currency monthly monitor

Just a reminder that I produce a monthly digest of central bank digital currency (CBDC) developments exclusively for the official sector. So for any of you out there who work for a central bank, ministry of finance or international financial institution who would like to receive it by email on the first business day of every month, please DM me on LinkedIn or email me at chronicles@kiffmeister.com.

The Sovereign Official Digital Association (SODA) is a technology-agnostic firm offering advisory services at the intersection of central banking, digital finance and the web3 industry, aiming to make public digital money a reality. SODA believes institutions in the existing financial ecosystem should have access to the tools and resources they need to move from discussion to action. SODA offers ‘real life’ use cases to help test digital money and drive adoption as central banks and other public institutions explore the future of a more financially inclusive world powered by interoperable blockchain-based networks. SODA would love you to join us on this journey – please get in touch (chris@sodapublicmoney.org).

Satoshi Capital Advisors is a New York-based, global advisory firm that works with central banks, governments, and the private sector to architect, implement, and operate varying initiatives. Satoshi Capital Advisors’ central bank work revolves around CBDC architecture and implementation, providing advisory services from research phase through to growth phase. Utilizing a product-market fit and technology agnostic approach to CBDC architecture and implementation enables Satoshi Capital Advisors to build tailored solutions, bespoke to local financial system nuances. Satoshi Capital Advisors welcomes requests from central bank officials for virtual and in-person CBDC workshops. [Click here for more information]

WhisperCash offers the first fully offline digital currency platform that has the same properties as physical cash. It can perform secure consecutive offline payments without compromising on security, privacy or accessibility. WhisperCash allows direct person to person offline payments without any server infrastructure or internet connectivity. It comes in various form factors including the self-contained credit card-sized “Pro” that sports an eInk screen and capacitive keyboard, and lasts for two weeks between recharges assuming a few transactions per day. [Click here for more information]