The Potential Financial Stability Impact of the Digital Euro (ECB)
The European Central Bank (ECB) published an analysis of potential banking sector disintermediation associated with the introduction of a digital euro, finding that potential deposit outflows vary substantially by scenario. Under the business-as-usual scenario, outflows from banks are modest for all assessed holding limits, with total outflows well below stress thresholds—deposit inflows from payment digitalization until 2034 (about €127 billion) may actually exceed digital euro outflows for limits up to €3,000. In the flight-to-safety scenario—a highly unlikely, systemic confidence crisis—the maximum aggregate deposit outflow rises from €156 billion with a €500 holding limit to €699 billion with a €3,000 limit (representing up to 8.2% of retail sight deposits and 2.2% of total banking sector assets). For comparison, past real-world crises saw much higher retail deposit outflows: 20.9% in Cyprus (2013) and 25.9% in Greece (2015). Even under stress, most banks maintain liquidity and funding buffers well above regulatory minima, and only a handful would risk falling below these thresholds. The analysis underscores that careful design of digital euro holding limits is critical, as limits contain outflows and help maintain financial stability. [Source: ECB]
Assessment of Digital Euro Investment Costs for the Euro Area Banking Sector (ECB)
The European Central Bank (ECB) published an assessment of digital euro investment costs for the euro area banking sector, incorporating critical factors overlooked in previous industry studies. The ECB argues that significant cost synergies and mutualization opportunities exist within the payment industry, which could substantially reduce the €18 billion figure estimated by a previous study by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC). By accounting for external synergies through shared vendors, outsourcing arrangements, and collaborative infrastructures—as well as adjusting for specific digital euro design features—the ECB estimates that actual implementation costs could range from €4-5.77 billion total (€1-1.44 billion annually over four years). This analysis reveals that banking group synergies within Institutional Protection Schemes (IPSs) could achieve 90-98% cost savings, while market synergies for independent banks could yield 25-40% reductions depending on vendor concentration and collaboration history. The report emphasizes that banks already extensively use shared solutions for payment channels and compliance functions, and this model can be leveraged for digital euro implementation, bringing costs closer to the European Commission’s original estimate of €2.8-5.4 billion. [Source: ECB]
Banque de France and Euroclear to Tokenize Short-Term Debt in Paris (Euroclear)
Banque de France and Euroclear launching a joint project ( “Pythagore”) to tokenize Negotiable European Commercial Paper (NEU CP) using distributed ledger technology (DLT)—a major step to modernize the euro area’s largest short-term debt market, which has €310 billion outstanding. This initiative aims to enhance efficiency, transparency, and security in short-term financing. The pilot phase of the project is scheduled to start at the end of 2026, in line with the start of the pilot of the Eurosystem “Pontes” project (see below). [Source: Euroclear]
Eurosystem Selects Members for the Pontes Market Contact Group (ECB)
The Eurosystem has chosen a group of financial market participants and central banks to join the new Pontes market contact group, following a July call for expressions of interest. This group aims to facilitate focused dialogue around Pontes, a project designed to enable settlement of distributed ledger technology (DLT) transactions in euro using central bank money. Pontes will begin work in October 2025, initially targeting the pilot phase set for launch in Q3 2026, and later expanding its services. Pontes is a short-term solution for wholesale euro transaction settlement on DLT platforms, with a longer-term project, Appia, to follow, both building on the European Central Bank’s (ECB’s) earlier exploratory work regarding settlement using wholesale central bank digital currency (CBDC). [Source: ECB]
Group of Leading International Banks Explores Stablecoin Issuance (BNP Paribas)
“A group of leading international banks is jointly exploring the issuance of a 1:1 reserve-backed form of digital money that provides a stable payment asset available on public blockchains, focused on G7 currencies. The group of banks includes Banco Santander, Bank of America, Barclays, BNP Paribas, Citi, Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs, MUFG Bank Ltd, TD Bank Group and UBS. The objective of the initiative is to explore whether a new industry-wide offering could bring the benefits of digital assets and enhance competition across the market, while ensuring full compliance with regulatory requirements and best practice risk management. The group is in contact with regulators and supervisors in each relevant market and will continue to keep appropriate parties updated as the project progresses.” [Source: BNP Paribas]
Upcoming Speaking Engagements:
Stablecoin C-Suite Summit (New York City on November 14-15) will be the definitive conference for exploring the future of digital money and intelligent payments. The event brings together founders, C-level executives, investors, policymakers, and developers for two immersive days of talks, panels, and networking. This be the place to be if you’re building, backing, or regulating the next wave of programmable finance. [Register here]
The Digital Euro Conference 2026 (Frankfurt, March 26) will explore the future of money with a focus on CBDCs, stablecoins, and commercial bank tokens. This hybrid event offers the perfect platform to understand the future of digital money! When you register, get 20% off the regular ticket price by using the Kiffmeister20 code! [register here]
I produce a monthly digest of digital fiat currency (DFC) developments exclusively for the official sector (e.g., central banks, ministries of finance and international financial institution (e.g., the BIS, IMF, OECD, World Bank)) plus academics and firms that are active in the DFC space (commercial banks, technology providers, consultants, etc.). (DFCs include central bank digital currency (CBDC), stablecoins and tokenized deposits.) It goes out via email on the first business day of every month, and if you’re interested in being on the mailing list, please email me at john@kiffmeister.com.
