The Stablecoin Transfer Volume Number in Most Board Packs is Misleading (AI-Mabrook)
In its third quarter 2026 Digital Assets Executive Industry Update Al-Mabrook Financial questions the reliability of headline stablecoin transfer volume metrics, challenging the oft-cited $62 trillion transfer volume for 2025 as a true measure of adoption. The data suggests it is not, filtering gross volume down to just $350–$550 billion in genuine real-economy payments. Business-to-business transactions ($150 to $230 billion) dominate this legitimate flow because traditional rails remain inefficient, followed by consumer-to-consumer remittances and consumer-to-business payments ($90 to $130 billion each). Business-to-consumer flow, largely payroll and marketplace payouts, accounts for the remainder. [AI-Mabrook]
Stablecoin Multi-Country Issuance and Dollar-Run Risks in Europe (CEPR)
A Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) paper by Martino, Monnet, and Perotti critically examines the systemic risks posed by multi-country issuance of USD-denominated stablecoins. The authors argue that because the European Union (EU) Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) regulations guarantees unconditional, par-value redemptions—unlike proposed U.S. regulations that permit fees and gates—technologically fungible tokens create dangerous avenues for cross-border redemption arbitrage. In times of stress, this regulatory asymmetry incentivizes rational holders to offload dollar-run risks entirely onto EU-based issuers. Conceding that structural bans on multi-country issuance are politically unlikely, the authors propose a pragmatic mitigation strategy to achieve “functional redemption equivalence.” They advocate mandating automatic, smart-contract-embedded contingent measures, specifically sequencing redemption fees ahead of hard gates, to deter self-fulfilling runs. Furthermore, the paper recommends granting the European Central Bank powers to suspend non-euro stablecoin redemptions during severe crises, aiming to safeguard EU monetary sovereignty against unhedgeable USD stablecoin market contagion. [CEPR]
Privacy in Wholesale Cross-Border Payments: Assessing Project Agorá (SUERF)
A Société Universitaire Européenne de Recherches Financières (SUERF) paper by Jan Camenisch and the Swiss National Bank’s Thomas Moser evaluates the privacy architecture of the Bank for International Settlements Project Agorá, a distributed ledger initiative for wholesale cross-border payments, against five design objectives. The authors note that Agorá utilizes the Paladin framework to achieve selective disclosure, regulatory access, and multijurisdictional configurability with low computational overhead. However, the assessment highlights significant architectural trade-offs. By relying on issuer-delegated verification rather than trustless systems, the design concentrates information and trust within issuing entities. Additionally, keeping private state off-ledger introduces resilience challenges, and the network remains vulnerable to metadata leakage. Ultimately, the paper concludes that while Agorá is operationally pragmatic, future phases must address off-chain state management and metadata vulnerabilities. [SUERF]
BTW if you want to see a complete database of my DFC-related posts going back years, including many that didn’t make the Daily Digest cut, click here.
FYI I produce a monthly digest of digital fiat currency (DFC) developments exclusively for the official sector (e.g., central banks, ministries of finance and international financial institution (e.g., the BIS, IMF, OECD, World Bank)) plus academics and firms that are active in the DFC space (commercial banks, technology providers, consultants, etc.). (DFCs include central bank digital currency (CBDC), stablecoins and tokenized deposits.) It goes out via email on the first business day of every month, and if you’re interested in being on the mailing list, please email me at john@kiffmeister.com.
